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FTSE Forecasts

Result

The average (median) forecast is 6250. On average people entered a higher number for the 2013 forecast than their prediction of what everybody else thinks. The median difference was 69.

There were only 34 entries - I should have thought of the competition sooner in December.

 Forecast    Prediction of median
 Name
4800 6350 Chris Menon
5000 6500 dendyver
5423 6123 Anon
5545 5805 charleyduck
5600 6100 JT
5750 6050 Stemis3
5963 6269 Tint angel
6050 6040 Mike
6070 5977 ArabianOnyx
6123 5986 northern
6199 6321 Anon
6207 5350 fatherb
6209 6305 martinb201
6220 6435 PlayDumb
6235 6182 Alan Thompson
6235 6150 Jesttech
6250 6100 littledavesab
6250 5890 Scaramanga
6300 6100 Ts846
6328 6412 StrollingMolby
6350 6400 CapitAl
6375 5925 Malcolm Lee
6376 6100 geddinquick
6377 6550 paul mckay
6387 5920 teves
6475 6535 Steve Markus
6580 6750 Samir D
6652.8 6433.2 Mari11ion
6780 6275 PeterBill
6789 6250 CantEatValue
6928 6261 LaxerNo6
6969 6550 Dinocras
7200 6500 floorlord
7250 6350 BrianGeee

Winner

The first stage winner is CantEatValue who predicted the median FTSE100 end 2013 forecast exactly - 6250.

A competition and an experiment

The annual FTSE100 forecasts by Goldman etc are just feelgood PR. The world's economies are unstable - they cannot even predict GDP growth with any accuracy. Market sentiment a year ahead is doubly unknowable.

However, just for fun, here's a wisdom of crowds competition with a twist. You can forecast the level of the FTSE100 index. You can also predict what the average (median) forecast will be. What everybody else thinks may average on the optimistic side following a market rise or be too gloomy when the headline are full of doom.

The forecasts and first winner will be published here on January 2 2013. The forecast nearest to the actual FTSE100 level at end 2013 will be announced on January 2 2014.

Prizes

Free Capital

Both winners will get a a signed copy of Guy Thomas' Free Capital: How 12 private investors made millions in the stock market

"A compelling read...definitely the best investment book that has crossed my desk for some time" - Alistair Blair, Investor's Chronicle

"At last, a true to life account of UK investing" - Stockopedia review

The book will be signed by the author and two of the investors featured.

Rules

Since there is a prize, a tedious set of terms and conditions appears below. Mainly - only one entry per person who must be UK resident and 18 or over (or get a parent's permission). The deadline for entries is 31 Dec 2012.


Terms and conditions

These terms and conditions are the Competition Rules ("Rules")

1. Freesharedata.com reserves the right to cancel or amend the Competition or the Rules without notice in the event of a catastrophe, war, civil or military disturbance, act of God or any actual or anticipated breach of any applicable law or regulation or any other event outside Freesharedata.com’s reasonable control. Any changes will be posted on this page..

2. In the event of any dispute regarding the Rules, conduct, results and all other matters relating to the Competition, the decision of the judge shall be final and no correspondence or discussion shall be entered into.

Qualifying Entrants

3. To qualify to enter the Competition you must be resident in the United Kingdom..

4. Freesharedata.com's owner and his immediate family are not eligible to enter the Competition.

5. By entering the Competition, you hereby warrant that all information submitted by you is true, current and complete. Freesharedata.com reserves the right to verify the eligibility of all entrants.

6. Freesharedata.com assumes that by reading the website and entering the Competition (and you warrant that) you are aged 18 or over or, if you are under 18, that your parents have consented to your entry into the Competition and these Rules.

7. Freesharedata.com reserves the right to disqualify any entrant if it has reasonable grounds to believe the entrant has breached any of the Rules.

8. In the event that any entrant is disqualified from the Competition, Freesharedata.com in its sole discretion may decide whether a replacement should be selected. In this event, any further entrant will be selected on the same criteria as the original entrant and will be subject to these Rules.

Competition Entries

9. Only one entry per person per Competition is allowed

10. Competition entries must be made in the manner and by the closing date specified on the Competition Notice.

11. There is no purchase requirement to enter the Competition

Prizes

12. The winners will be announced here and notified by 10 Jan 2012 and 10 Jan 2014. Return of any prize notification as undeliverable or failure to reply as specified in the notification (and within the time stated) may result in disqualification and selection of an alternate winner. Competition entrants' pseudonyms will be published on Freesharedata.com

13. Prizes are non–transferable and there is no cash alternative.

14. Prizes are awarded at the discretion of Freesharedata.com and no prizes will be awarded as a result of improper actions by or on behalf of any entrant.

14A. If the nearest forecast of the actual FTSE100 at end 2013 has the same entrant as the winner of the predict-the-average forecast, the prize will go to the second nearest entrant.

Liability

15. Freesharedata.com cannot accept any responsibility for any damage, loss, injury or disappointment suffered by any entrant entering the Competition or as a result of accepting any prize.

Data Protection and Publicity

16. Any personal data relating to entrants will not be disclosed to a third party without the individual’s consent. Data relating to entrants will be retained by Freesharedata.com for a reasonable period after the Competition closes to assist Freesharedata.com to operate competitions in a consistent manner and to deal with any queries on the Competition.

Jurisdiction

17. The Competition and Rules will be governed by English law and any disputes will be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of England. Where the site and/or the Interactive Services are accessed from Scotland or Northern Ireland, this Agreement shall be governed by the laws of Scotland or Northern Ireland respectively and you hereby submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Scottish courts or the courts of Northern Ireland respectively.